This is a major factor in any expectation that Robinson would be fantasy lineup-relevant without an injury to one of the other options, especially beyond the early weeks of the season. Even if the split is swapped with Williams as the slight 1A to Gordon's now 1B, achieving a top-12 result will hinge on Gordon missing a chunk of the season. Tevin Coleman is one of those veteran thorns in the sides of young backs to garner touches. McKissic returns from injury to his role as the pass-catching back, and Washington also drafted Brian Robinson Jr in the third round. Johnson himself has acknowledged it, and the backs' usage in the first preseason game indicates frustration for anyone wanting to farm this barren land. He finally received the workhorse role fantasy players have craved. Jamal Lewis 18. Miles Sanders, Philadelphia | Consensus Rankings RB21 | Consensus Projections RB21. Victoria Geary: We should not steer clear of Harris completely for the 2021 season, but we should lower our expectations for a locked-and-loaded RB1 finish. Optimizer Quick Start, Percent Rostered Mike Davis, Atlanta | Consensus Rankings RB24 | Consensus Projections RB23. Matt Waldman: After studying Swift's best weeks in 2020, the Lions' offseason acquisitions, and Coach Lynn's analysis of his backs, I'm less enthusiastic about Swift. The coaching staff did not ignore this, as they selected the best pass-catching running back in the fifth round of the NFL Draft in Kenneth Gainwell. Here are the players who received the most votes: And here are all of the payers mentioned and the reasons why. With McKissic back taking over passing down duties and Brian Robinson Jr possibly taking over red zone opportunities, Gibson is being overvalued in fantasy drafts. Sigmund Bloom: There are too many forces that Barkley has to swim upstream again to justify taking Barkley at his lofty ADP. Austin Ekeler, LA Chargers | Consensus Rankings RB9 | Consensus Projections RB9. Phil Alexander: Hunt finished last season as the RB10 in PPR scoring, but his cumulative stats were buoyed by a four-game stint as Cleveland's starter when Nick Chubb was out with an MCL sprain. I have seen Bettis crack the top 20 and even top 10 of some lists, and this is inexplicable. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans | Consensus Rankings RB3 | Consensus Projections RB2. Can he still be fantasy-relevant? Drafting Jacobs around this price is drafting him at his ceiling -- perhaps even above it. He and Ameer Abdullah -- who played over Kenyan Drake in the first preseason game -- could take away tons of receiving work, while White is capable of obtaining shots around the goal line. Although the rookie saw an uptick in usage throughout his first season, he managed to eclipse 66% of his teams snaps just once. "Footballguys is the best premiumfantasy football History and time have helped make Perry one of the most overrated defensive players of all time. Barry Sanders - 15, averaged one 50-plus-yard TD every 204 carries. It seems the case that he is being drafted well above his upside. Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay | Consensus Rankings RB30 | Consensus Projections RB27. Had more rushing touchdowns last year than Williams. The Raiders have a lot of diverse depth with several different pass catchers, speed backs, and bruisers at the running back position for Jacobs to be drafted at his current ADP. 20 20. Unfortunately for him, the team replaced the coaching staff that he impressed and signed veteran Carlos Hyde and drafted Travis Etienne in the first round. However, with Smith out of town, gunslinger Ryan Fitzpatrick now under center, and sophomore running back Antonio Gibson expected to step up, McKissic isnt someone that will have much value in most fantasy leagues. There is no other way to explain a mid-range RB3 price when he is in one of the worst possible situations in Houston. But he's 29, he's undersized, he had a hard time staying healthy last year, he adds little as a pass catcher, and the San Francisco backfield is awfully crowded now. Ben Cummins: Robinson was an awesome story in 2020 as he just kept producing while seeing 21.43 opportunities per game (6th most in the league) from Weeks 1-16. The 39 Most Overrated Bands Of All-Time While they might have some catchy tunes, some bands are really overrated. Lambertville, Michigan 48144. most overrated running backs of all time(734) 854-2000 Should drafters trust the first 25 games of his career where he was a compiler with minimal ceiling or the final six games against bad defenses in 2020? 5. There have been personnel changes and a change in offensive coordinator to Matt Canada. He was a liability during pass plays because of his inability to catch passes. Derrick Henry, Tennessee | Consensus Rankings RB4 | Consensus Projections RB4. But the Ravens are a Super Bowl contender and won't veer from the system that's gotten them to the peak. The role we envisioned for Johnson is already in question. His ADP has not shot up the draft boards as quickly as he propelled into fantasy relevance last year due to the almost non-existent target share he received in the passing game. Ben Cummins: The Raiders offense should be fun this season with the additions of Davante Adams and new head coach, Josh McDaniels. Henry is one of my favorite players in the league, but there are preferable first-round picks for me in 2021. Malcolm Brown should play plenty, and this offense isn't likely to be explosive enough to support two running backs in any meaningful way. Cohen is strictly limited to passing-down work, and the numbers suggest that he isn't outstanding in that role either. Harris has the potential to be this year's Clyde Edwards-Helaire, as he may end up burning us relative to his current ADP of RB13 and 20th overall. Bettis was nothing more than an average RB for a long period of time (13 years). The depth behind Ekeler is average, but there are enough players to steal touches. He was a reliable pass-protector, and had sure hands. James Brimacombe: Johnson has been a fantasy hero for us in the past, but now entering Year 7, his best days are behind him. He has lapses in vision and decision-making. Barkley could hit on pure talent and above-average recuperative ability, but everything else is going against him to return value on his lofty ADP. David Johnson 's fantasy fortunes have been a roller coaster ride over the past three seasons. By the season's end, Mike Davis will be a case of "I knew it," but the guy who pushes him down or out is pure guesswork at this stage. Eric Dickerson 8. His best year came in 2011 when he ran for 10 touchdowns and 1,047 yards, but other than that he didn't do much else. 9 out of the 13 years Bettis played in the NFL he averaged less than 4 yards per carry. Even if he receives most of the early-down and passing game work, it still wont be very valuable on a putrid offense. I believe it is more accurate to measure a RB by per season averages, because running backs such as Jim Brown did not play long. Combine a true committee situation with a quarterback who racks up 1,000 yards and a handful of scores, and you have a ceiling on Dobbins that won't be unlocked without a rash of injuries. Matt Waldman: Many of my peers at Footballguys are worshippers of draft capital as a predictor of talent. Has no highlight reel. We've seen J.D. Though volume is important in fantasy football, Harris could struggle behind his offensive line and not garner an elite share of red zone touches. But Gordon averaged more yards per carry last year than Williams. Jeff Bell: Gibson finished fourth in rushing attempts. Leave him there for the next guy to take him. His knee injury involved multiple ligament tears, and the Giants are likely to bring him along slowly. Harris stayed an extra year in college to improve his draft capital, and rightfully so, as the 2020 class was filled with elite running back talent. Ben Cummins: I dont want much to do with the Texans at all this season. Swift relied heavily on touchdown production for his fantasy numbers. LaDainian Tomlinson 6. If you look at Bettis total career marks, you will see that he is 5th on the all time rushing yards list and 10th in TDs. His ADP has been climbing recently, and while his price says drafters are aware of the easy schedule down the stretch, he's still being overvalued at his current price. This is exactly what the Steelers tried to do by selecting Najee Harris in the first round in the NFL Draft. David Montgomery, Chicago | Consensus Rankings RB19 | Consensus Projections RB20. It all depends on who works best in the new scheme and if the scheme works. Therefore, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position. I can't see Mostert getting enough work to justify his current ADP. His ADP says drafters are aware of the easy schedule down the stretch, but he's still being overvalued at his current price. Victoria Geary: We should not steer clear of Harris completely for the 2021 season, but we should lower our expectations for a locked-and-loaded RB1 finish. We don't yet know how much of Kamara's past success as a pass-catcher to attribute to Brees. There are backs going after Chubb who will receive bigger shares of their teams usage. Then we have the Taysom Hill conundrum. Overall: 98 and 96. "Matthew Berry, ESPN. Ryan Hester: Even before he played double-digit snaps in the most meaningless of all meaningless preseason games, Jacobs was a solid fade. Subscription, Early-March Top 10 Defensive Back IDP Rankings, 5 RBs to Buy In Dynasty Before NFL Free Agency. Barkley is a workhorse. The only reason Johnson had fantasy value last year was a superhuman effort from Deshaun Watson to move the offense and produce points. Jonathan Morris: As soon as Josh McDaniels came into the picture as the new head coach of the Raiders, my valuation of Jacobs immediately went down. Here is the player who received the most votes: And here are all of the payers mentioned and the reasons why. Taylor can be a rock-solid option and still be pecked away with Hines and Mack enough to be more in the RB10-15 range. J.D. Here are the players who received the most votes: And here are all of the players mentioned and the reasons why. Harris stayed an extra year in college to improve his draft capital, and rightfully so, as the 2020 class was filled with elite running back talent. I would probably rank him around 43. Cohen is not even a projected injury-away auto-start fantasy option heading into training camp. The additions of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Curtis Samuel, Dyami Brown, and a healthy Antonio Gibson should blunt his numbers and make his season look more like 2020's first half when he averaged 4.7 targets and 3.6 receptions per game instead of his second half when he saw 8.6 targets and 6.1 catches an outing. The Top Ten 1 David Beckham David Robert Joseph Beckham is (born 2 May 1975) is an English former professional footballer, the current president & co-owner of Inter Miami CF and co-owner of Salford City.. Gaskin was a revelation versus his cost a year ago but is a buyer beware in 2021. The team added Brian Robinson Jr Jr. on day two of the draft while retaining J.D. McKissic. Unfortunately, he needs to stay hyper-efficient on the ground to stay fantasy relevant, as Ravens running backs have gotten a 70/30 carry split with Jackson over the last three years. Notre Dame's Kyren Williams was one of them and Georgia's James Cook was the other player named. Bettis was also a nonfactor in the passing game. Dillon a lot, and reports from OTAs have been promising. Gaskin is a nice player, but the signings by this staff the last two offseasons say they don't have confidence that Gaskin is their guy. My, my, how the game has changed. Sigmund Bloom: Anthony Lynn basically told us that he will run a committee of Swift and free agent pick Jamaal Williams when he called Williams his "A" back. He has the ability to handle that role and thrive in the process. Jalen Hurts will inevitably take away carries and goal-line rushes from the backfield, capping any true remaining upside Sanders may have been clinging to. Fred Taylor Every NFL team's most overrated player of all time Jarrett Bailey 12/21/2021 180K donated to doctor who preformed 10-year-old girl's abortion to help with legal costs, security. Footballguys staff members discuss running backs who are overvalued. Projecting a fourth-round pick to take over the backfield would be fine if there was evidence that this was happening. Now we can extinguish any hopes of Jacobs getting more involved in the passing game. Sigmund Bloom: Jacobs' ADP would be justified and reasonable if the Raiders hadn't added Kenyan Drake, but they did. Ben Cummins: Henrys past two monster years were with offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, the head coach in Atlanta. Gibson has also been struggling with fumbles in training camp, which have drawn the ire of the Commanders coaching staff. Phil Alexander: Hunt finished last season as the RB10 in PPR scoring, but his cumulative stats were buoyed by a four-game stint as Cleveland's starter when Nick Chubb was out with an MCL sprain. Its easy and lazy to make comparisons to "Todd Gurley under Sean McVay," but that hope is pushing him into a tier of running backs that he does not belong. If he is still on the opening day roster, his workload will be usurped by the rookie when the coaching staff trusts him. Jalen Hurts will inevitably take away carries and goal-line rushes from the backfield, capping any true remaining upside Sanders may have been clinging to. He also has a new coaching staff, a new play-caller, and a new system to learn. Sigmund Bloom: Not that the Texans offense was anything you wanted to go near in fantasy drafts in the first place, but Johnson's ADP needs to adjust by multiple rounds to the news that he will be sharing the backfield with Phillip Lindsay and Mark Ingram II and no longer in the lead back role. Chad Parsons: As much as Taylor is an overt talent and a potentially elite RB1 in a best-case scenario. It looked like Williams would consolidate the lead role in the offseason. Kansas City had 40 passing touchdowns and 10 rushing scores. Perhaps the political and social issues depicted in 'The Grapes of Wrath" were too controversial. There's too much risk to draft him as an ever-week starter. Austin Ekeler, LA Chargers | Consensus Rankings RB7 | Consensus Projections RB7. . Projections, Get The Most Out Of Your In addition, teammate Gus Edwards just signed a two-year, $10M contract extension in June, so he isnt going anywhere any time soon. Even the best backs need help, and Harris is less likely to have consistent holes to run through than any of the backs going around him. Here's our list of the greatest 30 running backs in NFL history. Robinsons workload will dramatically decrease this season, and drafters arent taking that into account as much as they should. Gaskin's current draft position is indicative of him being the top back in Miami, and it's not a foregone conclusion that he is. Murray scored 11 rushing touchdowns in 9 different games in 2020. The Commanders drafted Brian Robinson Jr on Day 2 of the draft, a bigger back who excelled in pass protection. Awesemo fantasy expert Nick Lepri gives you the three MOST OVERRATED RBs, breaks down his running .. Color me skeptical Sanders has a new ceiling for receiving production with Scott and Gainwell passing game-centric options, and Howard could be a goal-line option. He feasted on unsustainable opportunities and a soft schedule. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans | Consensus Rankings RB3 | Consensus Projections RB2. Jordan McNamara: Javonte Williams got a major bump in value in the offseason when Melvin Gordon III was a free agent. O.J. Jonathan Morris: Gibson was already someone I was worried about getting enough volume to be drafted at his current ADP. While Hunt has moderate standalone value playing alongside Chubb, he'll need to either break a long run, vulture a touchdown at the goal-line, or catch a score to help you win a weekly matchup -- all things that are difficult to bank on. The current regime did not select Robinson. Worst of all, he is now playing on the Houston Texans, who have no identity on offense heading into the season. Barry Sanders 3. Then, two players were listed as being the most overrated compared to their draft projection. McKissic take the bulk of receiving work in Washington -- even though Gibson himself is a converted wide receiver. Lineup Builder Quick Start, Multi-Lineup Ryan Hester: Chubb shares his backfield with a very talented player in Kareem Hunt, and Hunt is the one who gets the lions share of the passing game work. Henry is all but guaranteed to regress after rushing for over 2,000 yards last season, and he doesnt catch enough passes. Gaskin is an easy fade at his current price. Even last year, as the Panthers starter, he averaged just 3.9 yards-per-carry. He's not a player to build your team around if you pick in the top half of the first round. And the Titans got worse this offseason, losing wide receiver Corey Davis, tight end Jonnu Smith, cornerback Adoree' Jackson, and defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. Sigmund Bloom: One year after the signing of Gordon indicated a lack of faith in Phillip Lindsay -- that bore out with Lindsay being allowed to leave in free agency this offseason -- the Broncos moved up in the second round to take Javonte Williams, indicating a lack of faith in Gordon. Melvin Gordon III, Denver | Consensus Rankings RB28 | Consensus Projections RB29. We use cookies to personalize content, ads and analyze site traffic. The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. Dillon is maturing as a receiver and might be used in that facet of the game despite his size profile suggesting hes a bruiser. From Weeks 13 through 17, Dobbins received a measly two total targets from quarterback Lamar Jackson. There are no guarantees he fits with what Atlanta wants to do or whether he has the endurance to handle a workload after last year's use. They might be lucky to win three games, which means limited touchdown potential for Johnson and a shortage of run-friendly game scripts. In addition, Antonio Gibson finished the year banged up and ceding snaps to McKissic. No one can take away his heroics stepping in for Christian McCaffrey, and he was rewarded in the offseason when Atlanta presumably signed him to be new coach Arthur Smith's feature back. So what's the concern? Then as soon as they go south, we pile on like kids in a mosh pit? Running back Chris Wells of the Arizona Cardinals was a first-round draft pick, 31st overall, in 2009 who always seemed to be on the injured list year after year. The current regime did not select Robinson. Jason Wood: Sanders is talented, and when healthy, was productive under former head coach Doug Pederson. He didnt have a top 5 offensive line, so that eliminates the argument that he was made by the offensive line. Pittsburghs front five looks nothing like last years group. 1 receiver for a significant chunk of the season. 9 Tim Brown Via nfl.com I was one of many who publicly voiced outrage over the fact that Tim Brown had to wait until 2015 get his Hall of Fame honor. When we go into advanced stats, we can tell even more about Bettis: * Note: The stats are Bettis averages per season, not total career. Yet, Travis Etienne was drafted in the first round, and Carlos Hyde, who Urban Meyer coached at Ohio State, was signed. Myles Gaskin, Miami | Consensus Rankings RB24 | Consensus Projections RB22. In Week 16 of the 2011 season, Adrian Peterson tore his ACL and returned as the #1 overall running back in 2012. There's just not enough upside here to justify taking Johnson anywhere near his ADP and no expectation of consistency in Johnson's usage or the Texans' ability to move the ball week to week. His lack of use as a runner has to be a concern. WHO ARE THE MOST OVERRATED FANTASY FOOTBALL RUNNING BACKS? Heading into this season, their offensive line is mediocre, their quarterback situation is a mess, they have a new coach, and the rest of the skill position players are uninspiring. J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore | Consensus Rankings RB16 | Consensus Projections RB17. These players will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. He has had 9,088 receiving+rushing yards over his career. Sep 20, 2020; Tampa, Florida, USA; Carolina . D'Andre Swift, Detroit | Consensus Rankings RB12 | Consensus Projections RB14. The only defense in that group to finish above the bottom quartile in Football Outsiders' rush defense DVOA metric was Green Bay, who allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to enemy running backs last season. Jeff Haseley: Clyde Edwards-Helaire has all of the tools and skills to be a successful fantasy back but failing to finish runs in the end zone has slowed his progress. Most Overrated QB: Tom Brady 1 of 6 Investing in Sanders as your RB2 is likely to leave you feeling disappointed. Jason Wood: Jacobs was the only projected Raiders offensive starter to play in the Hall of Fame game, which should be a blaring red flag for how much new head coach Josh McDaniels values Jacobs as a centerpiece. Never a good idea. For both Cleveland backs to be values, the team would have to produce vintage New Orleans-level production for its backs. I believe he should be elected because he was able to maintain a good level of consistency throughout his 13 years. Vegas used other backs last year and pigeonholed Jacobs as a two-down grinder. 24 Overrated RBs. Here are some stats from footballoutsiders.com: * Note: ADY = adjusted line yards, PSR = power success rank, SR = stuff ranking Average ADY: 4.29 Average PSR: 11th Average SR: 9th * These stats werent kept until 1996, so this doesnt include Bettis first 3 years in the NFL. Mostert is now 29 years old and has the highest draft position of anyone in this stable of capable running backs. Over the past decade, the NFL has really evolved into a passing league. Back up Share project Close 2022 hyundai sonata limited interior; what is birkenstock oiled leather; bates high gloss duty oxford; most overrated running backs of all time. Drew Davenport: Through nine games last year, Montgomery was the 26th ranked PPR running back in points per game at 12.2 a contest. As everyone knows by now, Montgomery faced some of the worst run defenses in the league to put up those huge numbers over that finishing stretch. Chad Parsons: Malcolm Brown looks, at a minimum, like a strong 1B option but did get the start and most of the snaps with Tua Tagovailoa with the first team in the initial preseason game. The next season he hit bottom with a knee injury that damaged his ACL, MCL, and meniscus. Tevin Coleman was specifically brought in because he knows the run-blocking schemes the Jets will employ this year, and Ty Johnson hasn't gone anywhere either. Victoria Geary: Sanders had the second-worst catch rate in the league last year among running backs, catching only 56% of his targets and dropping eight passes along the way (tied for most with Ezekiel Elliot). He's not a player to build your team around if you pick in the top half of the first round. And just how many touchdowns should we expect from an offense with glaring question marks at quarterback and the worst wide receiver depth chart this side of Detroit? Saquon Barkley, NY Giants | Consensus Rankings RB8 | Consensus Projections RB10. Gibson is more likely to lose his job than return a significant profit on his draft price.
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